Sea Freight Rates 2025

Why are sea freight rates increasing in 2025?

Carrier rate increases

Major shipping companies, such as MAERSK, have announced rate hikes for 2025. Particularly shipping prices for March have increased significantly compared to February.

In March 2025, the global container shipping market experienced a significant round of freight rate increases.

The trigger for this round of price increases was the collective price adjustment of liner companies.

Liner companies represented by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd took the lead in announcing freight rate increases on multiple routes.

Maersk raised the freight rates for European routes to US$2,600/TEU (20-foot container) and US$4,000/FEU (40-foot container);

Hapag-Lloyd raised the comprehensive rates for routes including the Far East to Europe and Asia to Africa, covering a variety of container types.

The new rates on the Far East-North Europe route are more than 100% higher than HMM’s February rates. The rate for FAK from Asia to:

Rotterdam/Gdansk/London is $2,600-2,665 for 20DC and $4,000-4,100 for 40HC/40DC

Aarhus/Gothenburg, rates are $2,633 for 20DC and $4,050 for 40HC/40DC

Oslo – $2,860 for 20DC and $4,400 for 40HC/40DC.

Reasons for price increase

1. Supply and demand mismatch:

The global economic recovery has driven the resumption of factory production. In order to avoid potential cost increases;

In particular, the risks that may be brought about by Trump's 2.0 tariff policy have led to early rush shipments, which has pushed up short-term freight demand.

Although the recovery of transportation demand in the European market is relatively slow, shipping companies have artificially created a tight supply situation through cabin control strategies, such as Mediterranean Shipping reducing voyages and shrinking capacity, which further supported the increase in freight rates.

2. Geopolitics and rising operating costs:

Geopolitical factors are also an important reason for the increase in freight rates.

The Red Sea crisis continues, causing most shipping companies to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the voyage and fuel costs.

At the same time, the new regulations implemented by the Panama Canal have also pushed up the cost of passage, and shipping companies have passed on the pressure by levying surcharges.

Market reaction

1. Intensified spot market volatility:

In the spot market, although freight rates have risen sharply, the actual cargo volume has not reached a high loading rate, and the price increase faces certain resistance.

After the Spring Festival, the spot freight rate on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route jumped from US$2,204/FEU in February to US$4,000/FEU for the voyage in March, but the market response was not as enthusiastic as expected.

2. Pressure on the freight forwarding industry:

The sharp fluctuations in freight rates have brought huge challenges to the freight forwarding industry.

The difficulties in quoting and the price pressure from customers have forced some freight forwarding companies to accept orders at a loss, and the elimination rate in the industry has risen.

Future Outlook

1. Short-term support factors:

In the short term, freight rates may remain high due to factors such as alliance restructuring and competitive strategies, geopolitical risks, etc.

After Mediterranean Shipping and Maersk terminated the 2M Alliance, the newly formed "Twin Star" Alliance may maintain high freight rates through the strategy of controlling space and price protection.

At the same time, if the Red Sea crisis is not alleviated, the loss of capacity caused by detours will continue to support freight rates.

2. Long-term downward pressure: 

However, in the long run, freight rates face greater downward pressure.

On the one hand, the delivery of new ships will lead to overcapacity;

On the other hand, policy and economic uncertainties may also suppress freight demand.

The implementation rhythm of Trump's tariff policy and the weak economic recovery in Europe and the United States may have a negative impact on the freight market.

Impact on the industry

1. Cross-border enterprise costs surge:

The rise in shipping freight rates has led to a significant increase in the transportation costs of cross-border enterprises, especially small and medium-sized exporters, whose profit margins have been severely squeezed.

2. The capital market is optimistic about the prospects of leading enterprises:

Despite the large fluctuations in freight rates, the capital market is optimistic about the prospects of leading enterprises.

Companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings and OOCL are favored by investors due to their strong cash flow and improved profit expectations.

The surge in shipping prices in Europe and the United States in March 2025 is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors.

In the face of this fluctuation, logistics companies and shippers need to pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes, and flexibly adjust strategies to cope with potential risks.

Anyway,

In March 2025, European and American shipping and global container shipping markets will see a sharp rise in freight rates, mainly driven by collective price adjustments by liner companies, supply and demand mismatches caused by global economic recovery, geopolitical risks and rising operating costs.

This has led to a divergence in market reactions, high sentiment in the futures market, volatility in the spot market, pressure on the freight forwarding industry, and a surge in costs for cross-border companies.

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Shawn.Liao (Mr.) ，E-MAIL：sales04@viputrans.com